Cultural Transition and Population Decline: Identifying Key Cultural Drivers in Iran’s Population Revitalization and Fertility Enhancement Programs

Abstract

This study addresses the issue of the continuous decline in Iran’s fertility rate (1.6 in 2016) and the failure of recent population revitalization policies. Acknowledging that the causes of this phenomenon extend beyond economic dimensions and are rooted in the “second demographic transition” and cultural transformations, the main objective of the research is to systematically identify and prioritize the key cultural drivers that neutralize pro-natalist policies. A mixed-methods design (convergent approach) was used. In the first phase, scientometric analysis (VOSviewer) was conducted on 44,931 documents from the ScienceDirect database (2000–2023). In the second phase, structural analysis (MICMAC) was applied to examine 26 cultural variables, using input from a panel of 29 experts. The scientometric analysis revealed that the global scientific discourse examines population decline primarily in connection with “climate change” (rank 1), rather than cultural–social factors. In contrast, the MICMAC analysis (with 98% desirability) assessed Iran’s cultural system as “unstable” and complex. Six key drivers were identified, with “the role of modernization and its consequences for families and especially women in altering attitudes” ranked as the most influential driver (rank 1). This was followed by “the psychological shift toward self-control” and “the devaluation of motherhood.” By prioritizing cultural drivers, this research addresses an existing gap in the literature. The findings indicate that policymaking must shift from short-term economic incentives toward dynamic and culture-based strategies. Key recommendations include “a modern and value-based redefinition of motherhood” (aligned with the identity of educated women) and “emphasizing long-term stability” (in education and healthcare) to meet families’ needs for “self-control” and future planning.